The Stable Pistachio Market with a Promising Future: Campaign 2022/23
How did the decline in global supply affect the pistachio market?
The decline in global supply, which was 4.8% equivalent to 791 thousand tons, initially hinted at a potential increase in prices. However, the current economic landscape, characterized by high inflation and reduced purchasing power, has led to a decline in household consumption.
What were the consumption trends for pistachios in the year 2021/22?
The year 2021/22 witnessed a significant decline in global domestic consumption, with a decrease of 13.6% worldwide and 14.0% in Spain (January to November 2022).
How did the three major pistachio producers perform in terms of production?
The United States experienced a decline in production by 23.5%, Iran faced a production reduction of approximately 21.5%, and Turkey recorded a positive trend with a 141.4% increase in production.
Keinia Group: Pistachios, known for their unique flavor and nutritional benefits, have become increasingly popular in recent years. The campaign for pistachios in 2022/23 has shown remarkable stability, evident in the steady evolution of prices, which have maintained an average of €450 per 100 kg since September 2022. While a decline in global supply (-4.8% and 791 thousand tons) initially hinted at a potential increase in prices, the current economic landscape, characterized by high inflation and reduced purchasing power, has led to a decline in household consumption[Source: Ana Cabrera Sánchez, Analista de Mercados en Plataforma Tierra, Grupo Cooperativo Cajamar].
Impact of Consumer Trends on the Pistachio Market
The year 2021/22 witnessed a significant decline in global domestic consumption, with a decrease of -13.6% worldwide and -14.0% in Spain (January to November 2022). Although the consumption forecasts presented by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) have improved slightly for 2022/23 (+0.7%), these improvements alone are insufficient to trigger a substantial increase in prices due to the deceleration in consumption and the rise in global stocks (+7.8%) at the beginning of the campaign.
International Production Trends
The behavior of the three major pistachio producers worldwide has been mixed, as reported by the USDA:
United States (US)
The harvest in the United States has experienced a decline due to alternate bearing patterns and adverse weather conditions, resulting in decreased yields and product quality. The estimated production reduction stands at -23.5%, with a total volume of 401.0 thousand tons. Consequently, US exports are expected to decrease by -17.7%, offsetting the quantities sent to European markets with the decline in trade with China.
Iran, another significant player in the global pistachio market, is also grappling with production challenges. Estimated figures for 2022 indicate a decline of approximately 21.5% (106.0 thousand tons) due to adverse weather conditions such as frost and drought. The Iranian sector anticipates a more pronounced reduction in exports, around -30.9%. However, despite the damage caused by frost in some production areas, early reports for 2023 suggest a good harvest, as reported by the Iranian Pistachio Association.
In contrast to the decline in production observed in the US and Iran, Turkey has experienced a positive trend in its pistachio harvest. The country recorded a total of 210.0 thousand tons (+141.4%) thanks to favorable conditions and alternate bearing patterns in its main production regions.
National Outlook and Growth Potential
Within Spain, official figures regarding pistachio production for 2022/2023 are yet to be released. However, initial estimates suggest a slight decrease compared to the previous campaign, as the alternate bearing patterns have been predominantly balanced by new plantations entering production. Pistachio cultivation in Spain is currently experiencing significant growth, fueled by positive consumption expectations in the medium and long term. The number of cultivated hectares has surged from approximately 15,000 in 2016 to over 70,000 in 2022. Despite this growth, the industry has not yet reached its maximum production potential, indicating a promising future.
Spanish Market and Growing Self-Sufficiency
Currently, the Spanish pistachio market relies heavily on imports, with the United States and Iran serving as the main suppliers. Nevertheless, the increasing expansion of pistachio cultivation in Spain is driving the country toward greater self-sufficiency in production. As the sector continues to grow, the nutritional characteristics and gastronomic versatility of this delightful nut generate positive expectations for its future development.
The pistachio market in the 2022/23 campaign has demonstrated stability despite challenges posed by global supply fluctuations and economic circumstances. While prices are expected to remain stable due to the factors mentioned above, the growth potential of the pistachio industry remains promising, especially in Spain, with its increasing cultivation and efforts toward self-sufficiency.